Friday, August 15th:
The Good, The OK and The Shaky
- It does not have the same punch as The Good, The Bad and The Ugly,
but it is a better description of how the NASDAQ, SP500 and DOW’s daily
charts look. By the way, The Good, The Bad and The Ugly quite possibly
could be the greatest movie ever made. Anyway, the NASDAQ chart looks
great as it has broken through the 200-day Moving Average and most of
the oscillators are looking good. The SP500 is still hanging around the
50-day moving average and oscillators look pretty good. The DOW however
really looks like it is starting to struggle. The Stochastic chart is
showing some divergence, while the index has been moving up over the
last month. The volume has been light as well, so just keep your eyes
peeled on this one.
If you want to see some charts about what I
am seeing, you can sign up for free and check them out. After signing
up, they are located under the Research tab and you click on ‘Charts of
Indexes’.
Thursday, August 14th:
Line in the Sand II
- The DOW fell below its 50-day moving average (MA) by a good margin
yesterday, so it appears the bears won that battle. The SP500 stayed
close to its 50-day MA and we will give the bears and bulls another day
to fight it out. The same goes for the NASDAQ only it is flirting with
the 200-day MA, so we give them round two of drawing lines in the sand.
I now I will be in the bulls corner today, so lets hope they come out
swinging.
Wednesday, August 13th:
Line in the Sand
- Well the DOW and SP500 both basically fell back to the 50-day moving
average after yesterday’s selloff. The financials got sick and gave
everyone else a cold. We had a pretty good run the last week and a
half, so perhaps we were due for a down day in these kind of market
conditions. The NASDAQ didn’t fare much better and fell back to the
200-day moving average. All 3 major indexes are sitting on those moving
average lines, so it looks like the line in the sand has been drawn.
Today’s action will determine if the bulls or bears walk over it.
Tuesday, August 12th:
Another Positive Day
- We had another positive day for the market yesterday in what is
becoming a pleasant little rally. The DOW and SP500 both have moved
slightly above the 50-day moving average and seem to have some positive
looking technicals in their favor. I would love to see them continue
the move up and test the 200-day moving average. The NASDAQ already
skyrocketed through the 50 and just broke above the 200-day moving
average yesterday. This is where we struggled back in May and early
June. In both cases, it slightly broke through the 200-day line and
slid back. If we can hold the line and break above it, we could be off
to the races, at least in the short term.
Monday, August 11th:
Great Week Behind, New Week Ahead
- Last week ended on a sweet note with the DOW rocketing just over 300
points, oils slide helping the cause. We will continue to see stocks go
up in the short-term if oil prices continue to drop. The strength of
the dollar is also a big factor in the recent gains. The dollar
hopefully has bottomed and will continue to rise. The European Central
Bank appears to be done raising rates for a while, so this should stop
the bleeding on one front at least.
The Olympics started last Friday and what
an opening ceremonies the Chinese put on. It was quite an impressive
show. Padraig Harrington won his second major in a row and poor Sergio
gagged another chance to win a major.
Friday, August 8th:
AIG Sinks DOW
- Well the markets could not fight off the bad news from AIG and sank
almost 2 percent yesterday. This kind of move is a non-event these
days. It has been a roller coaster ride for some time now and I do not
see anything in the near future that will stop this. This is great news
as long as you are on the right side of the trade on the ups and downs.
You have heard, “buy the dips, sell the rips” and it would be a great
way to make money this year. We will see if we can finish off the week
on a positive note today.
Thursday, August 7th:
AIG Hits the Fan
- AIG reported after the bell yesterday that they are sinking like the
Titanic. If you have not grabbed your life jacket yet, you better hurry
because this baby is going down. They posted a 5.4 billion dollar loss
and that was miss by a long shot. Freddie was in the dumps as well, but
I would say that is about what everyone expected. If stocks can hold up
today, it could be a good sign in the short term at least.
We are getting close to wrapping up the
earnings season, so the volatility should start to come down, right. I
would guess that oil, banks folding up, housing numbers and
unemployment figures should keep the traders plenty busy through the
remainder of the summer.
Wednesday, August 6th:
Now that is a Rally
- I knew the 2 days of stale trading would come to an end and boy did
it ever yesterday. The major indexes were up between 2 ½ and 3 percent
for the day. The reason for the rally is oil is falling like a stone
and traders liked what they heard from the FED. About the only thing
that did not work today is the anything related to commodities. High
fliers like Potash, Agrium and Mosaic are getting pounded along with
oil and coal stocks. It looks like a changing of the guard will be
taking place, but which industry is next on the rebound is the
question. Could it be Biotech, Healthcare or Technology stocks? I will
be monitoring this closely to see if I can find the pot of gold at the
end of the rainbow.
Tuesday, August 5th:
Boring, Boring, Boring
- Yesterday ended without the DOW moving over 100 points for the second
trading day in a row. This is madness and I expect big things today to
make up for lost time. The FED is speaking so hopefully they can stir
up some trouble one way or another. We had anything related to
commodities get hammered yesterday, but the markets really did not move
that much. The industries that have been working all year are starting
to lose ground and lose it rapidly. What will be the next big industry
to get hot?
Monday, August 4th:
New Week Begins
- A new week begins and we will see if the indexes will continue to
zigzag their way through earnings, oil and data releases. It would hard
to top last weeks action of up 200 one day and down 200 the next. This
kind of action hopefully gives everyone a new incentive to watch his or
her holdings a little closer. It does not take that much time to help
save yourself a percentage point or two that in the end can make a huge
difference in your pile of cash.
I have come to the realization that
electricity is important, not that I doubted its usefulness in the
first place. It just when you go 15 plus hours without power and have a
2 and 1 year old in the house, it makes life a little difficult. I will
need to make a run to Home Depot to make my life easier for the next
time I go powerless. Oh and that Man Ram guy is GOOD, go Dodgers!!!