Friday, August 1st:
Bulls 2 - Bears 2 -
Well we have a tie ballgame going into the ninth inning and we will
find out shortly who the winner is going to be. The bulls have had 2
great days and the bears have had 2 great days. Will it be the same old
players that step in and make the difference or will a new player
arrive to tilt the game in their favor? You can never tell in a market
like this but it certainly is exciting to watch. It would be much more
profitable if you knew which items were going to drive the market a day
in advance but that would not be any fun now would it. In a few hours
we will know who the winner is.
Manny being Manny has finally run its
course in Boston. The Dodgers are now blessed with his presents and it
will be fun to watch the chemistry between him and Jeff Kent develop.
Thursday, July 31st:
Bulls 2
- We had two days in a row of the bulls running the show and that has
not happened much this year. We will probably bounce all over the place
until the earnings season starts to come to a close. We even had oil
move higher yesterday but that didn’t seem to be the formula that drove
the market. Today, depending on which way the wind is blowing, could be
a day that oil matters.
The second quarter GDP will be released
this morning and ExxonMobil, Altria, Motorola, Revlon and one of my
favorites Green Mountain Coffee report earnings today. We also have
Henry Paulson talking about the markets and economy in the afternoon.
We will see which items will put the bulls and bears in good and bad
moods.
Wednesday, July 30th:
Bulls Turn
- Monday was for the bears and Tuesday was for the bulls. What will
Wednesday bring? This is one wacky market and to try to figure it out
is fruitless. You just have to prepare your portfolio to the best of
your ability and if that means sitting with cash on the sidelines, then
do it. You have to do what makes you comfortable and that is all that
matters. The price of oil dropping is what appears to have started the
ball rolling for the bulls Tuesday. One day we care about the price of
oil, the next day it is no big deal. One day the financial crisis takes
the top billing and the next it is not a factor. Strange days…
Tuesday, July 29th:
Financial Abyss
- We are quickly erasing everything we gained over a couple weeks and
news from Merrill could start financials off in the dumps today, when
the market opens. I guess whenever ANYONE says their capital is sound
and they do not need to raise it, you had better short the stock ASAP
because it’s going to need an influx of capital shortly. Merrill is
raising over 8.5 billion at the expense of their current stockholders.
I do not care how historically low PE ratios are for this group of
stocks, it just too hard to plunk down money on these bad boys. You are
just guessing on what they have on their books. There are too many
great companies out there in other industries that are being punished
and you at least have some idea of what the company is worth.
Monday, July 28th:
Earnings Roll On - Earnings will continue to rollout this week with
Verizon,
Amgen,
Kraft and
Loews
to start things off today. Investors will continue to pay close
attention to what companies are forecasting for the rest of the year.
The reoccurring theme appears to be beat the 2nd quarter earnings
estimate but warn about the troubling economy and then watch your stock
tumble. Oil will continue to be a hot topic as it bounces like a hot
potato all over the place. I think we have one more leg down before the
recovery begins, but that is just guess work.
Friday, July 25th:
Rally Take That
- Well that is not a great way to help a rally. The mini rally came to
a screeching halt yesterday as the DOW tumbled almost 300 points. Was
it the housing data, the unemployment numbers or just because? The
reason is never a 100% sure, but it hurts the wallet any way you slice
it.
We will finish the week off today with June
durable goods, June new home sales and July Michigan consumer
sentiment. I hope these numbers do not put the market in a sour mood.
Thursday, July 24th:
Another Day, Another Dollar
- The market continues to move forward, which is a welcome change over
the last few weeks. The earnings must be less disastrous than what was
expected because some of these numbers are not pretty but yet move
stocks in a positive direction. Today we have the June existing home
sales number coming out, so that could have a slight bearing on where
the market heads, but earnings and oil probably will have a bigger
impact. Hey, I will not complain about what has been going on over the
last 4 or 5 days that is for sure.
The big boys due out today are
Eli Lilly,
Potash Corp of Saskatchewan,
3M,
Union Pacific,
Burlington Northern,
Dow Chemical and
Celgene.
Wednesday, July 23rd:
Bad is Good
- Well we have reached the twilight zone in stocks. Bad is good appears
to be the new theme, at least when it comes to financials. Banks can
post abysmal numbers and actual go up and in some cases substantially.
This is nothing new of course when it comes to the stock market. There
are several reasons why the financials could be moving lately and one
is simply valuation. We could have people jumping off the energy and
commodity train, or at least reducing the load, and putting some in
these broken down stocks. What ever the reason is, I still am not ready
to commit any cash to this sector yet.
Tuesday, July 22nd:
Do You Yahoo, Carl Does
- Well Carl is on the board at Yahoo along with two additional seats.
He now has three of the seats and will be challenged with the tough
task of trying to move members over to his side of the fence. Microsoft
continues too only want pieces of the pie instead of the whole thing. I
have a feeling it is going to be a long process for the poor Yahoo
shareholders.
Today could be a rough one with the poor
earnings that were reported yesterday from Apple, Texas Instruments and
American Express. There are plenty of big names reporting today, so let
us hope they tilt the seesaw in favor of the bulls.
Monday, July 21st:
Norman Fades
- Greg Norman gave it a run but in the end it was just to much to ask
of the 53 year old. I was sure pulling for him but it was not to be.
The question of the day is will last week’s rally fade like Mr. Norman
or continue advancing forward? There will be plenty of market moving
events going on this week. Will oil continue its sharp decline and will
financials continue to move higher? We have another large list of
important earnings releases this week including Apple,
Texas Instruments,
American Express,
Bank of America,
Merck and
Schering-Plough
just on Monday alone. Another fun week is about to begin…
Friday, July 18th:
Deuces Wild
- The second day in a row of huge gains in the 3 major indexes. It is
still unclear if this rally is for real or short coverings but for now
who cares. The rally will definitely get tested today with Google,
Microsoft and Merrill Lynch not meeting what the street was looking
for. On the other hand, IBM reported great numbers. Oil has been
sinking like a stone over the last 3 trading days and will impact what
happens today in a big way. This week has undeniably been one crazy
ride and I would expect the same today as we finish up the week.
Thursday, July 17th:
Start of Rally or Short Covering
- What a great day for stocks yesterday! The 3 major indexes were all
up over 2 and ½ percent. The question is will the rally continue or was
this just short covering? You would have a strong argument for either
case.
We do appear to be oversold so a short
rally would seem in order. The only thing missing was the VIX jumping
up in the low to mid-thirties, but this does not need to happen for a
rally to begin. It just would have had more conviction with a little
capitulation.
The other scenario, short covering,
is a little more complicated but definitely a distinct possibility.
Well Fargo had better numbers than most were expecting, so that could
have scared some of the shorts into covering positions to lock in those
gains or protect themselves. There are a ton of earnings still on the
horizon this week and Friday is options expiration. The SEC also will
be cracking down on naked short selling starting on Monday, so this
undoubtedly changes the playing field. This as well could have started
the rally yesterday. In the words of Michael Buffer, “Let’s get ready
to rumble”.
Wednesday, July 16th:
All-Star All-Night
- The All-Star game went long into the night and it looks like the
financial issues could go long into the night as well. We did have some
positive news come out of yesterday and that was the VIX pushed above
the 30 level. It didn’t stay there, but at least it broke the barrier.
I would like to see this get a little higher and actually close above
30 before I commit any more money to this market. There is a mass of
earnings coming out today, so once again expect a crazy ride today.
Tuesday, July 15th:
Creeping VIX
- The VIX is at 28 and so was Josh Hamilton in the first round of Home
Run Derby. Josh hitting 28 was certainly exciting to see, even though
he eventually lost. If the VIX could finally break through 30, we could
perhaps start getting excited about a rally. I think the rally would be
short lived but anything at this point will do.
There are a ton of earnings coming out this week. The important ones coming out today are
Intel (INTC) ,
Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) ,
Seagate (STX) , and
US Bancorp (USB) just to name a few.
Monday, July 14th:
IndyMac Takes a Bite Out of Financials
- Today and this week could be setting up for one wild ride. You could
have almost certainly said this for any week in the last 6 months, but
this one could be special. Here are just a few of the items that will
influence the market. Options will be expiring on Friday and that can
always make things a little more exciting. Federal regulators seized
IndyMac, which is the 3rd largest bank failure in US history. Could
this be the beginning of multiple bank failures? It is indeed hard to
tell but I am sure we will hear plenty of dialog about it today. The US
Treasury will officially come to the aid of Freddie and Fannie. They
both have said money is not an issue, but the Treasury has to come out
with this statement to save them from going to zero. There is also a
plethora of earnings coming out. This might be the kind of week that
gets the VIX over the 30 mark, which at least started small rallies
this year. Let the games begin…