Friday, July 11th:
GE to Set the Tone - There have been a lot of up and downs this week and I am expecting the same today. GE will report before today’s bell and they could be setting the tone for the day. This stock the past 5 years has spent most of its time between $32 and $38, but has dropped all the way down to the high 20s. You would think we would be getting close to a buying point, but I will wait to see what they say today. Also reporting before the bell is Fastenal .
Thursday, July 10th:
Grin and Bear It - The financials started the late sell off yesterday and boy what a sell off it was. The DOW, NASDAQ and SP500 all dropped over 2 percent. One of the things that is a little scary is the VIX has not reached over 30 yet in the latest decline. The VIX was over 30 in both the January and March lows of this year before a rally started. You do not have to have this to have a bounce but it would be nice to see.
There is not a lot of earnings action today, but retailers June sales report will be released and that could push the market one way or another. We will see if oil slides today or perhaps starts its way back up to the 140s.
Wednesday, July 9th:
Oil Down and Out...Don't Count on It - Yesterday was a great day for stocks but perhaps not such a great day for Steeler fans. While the stocks got a charge from lower oil, Bernanke and Paulson speeches, Steeler fans found out late Sunday night that their beloved Steelers might be on the blocks. Seeing the Steelers under the direction of anyone except the Rooney family doesn’t seem right. Of course it doesn’t seem right having a foreign company own Budweiser, but that could be the case in the near future.
As for stocks, the oil bubble might be deflating a little but I would not bet against it just yet. We have seen pull backs before and they do not seem to last very long before oil takes off again. I know I would not be placing bets on either side of the oil trade right now. Alcoa might start us off on the right foot today, but don’t take your eye off the ball because it can change in a hurry these days.
Tuesday, July 8th:
Carl Do You Yahoo - Microsoft and Yahoo are back in the news with their never-ending saga. Microsoft basically said if Carl can get the board changed then they would think about buying the whole company. It doesn’t sound like the offer is going to be near the $33 a share that was reported as an earlier offer. I am not sure how Jerry Yang is going to explain this to the shareholders. It kind of parallels a Seinfeld episode where George is negotiating a deal for Jerry and him to get a sitcom. George, in typical George fashion, is success in getting a lower price for their sitcom. Perhaps George is helping Jerry Yang as well in these negotiations.
There are a couple big boy reporting earnings later today Pepsi Bottling and Alcoa .
Monday, July 7th:
Shoe to Drop - The short Fourth of July week is behind us and new one begins. The question is will oil behave itself or start to run away again. One thing that will be interesting to watch over the coming months is how banks credit card divisions do. The talk is consumers have moved from the home equity line of credit over to credit cards for their excessive spending habits. The question is how many consumers will default and what each banks exposure is to these defaults. This very well could be the next shoe to drop and unfortunately for the financials it is their industry that is dropping all the shoes.
Thursday, July 3rd:
There is a Bear in the Air - We have a ten-four on that bear in the air good buddy. The Dow and NASDAQ officially entered bear market territory (down 20% or more) with their closing prices yesterday. The VIX closed close to 26 and is nowhere near the heights of the January and March lows. The VIX topped 34 on those occasions so we might have some more to go.
Today is a short trading day, but it is still a very important one and we might have a lot of volatility. I think we are closing in on an over sold situation, but I am definitely not putting any new money to work just yet. I hate to even type these words, but I am actually thinking of getting into some financials……somebody please hit me. I at least have them on my radar, but we will see how the upcoming few weeks play out first.
Have a happy and safe Fourth of July!