Tuesday, June 24th:
FED's Dead Baby, FED's Dead - Bruce Willis delivered a wonderful line in Pulp Fiction, “Zed’s dead baby, Zed’s dead”. Well the FED is pretty much in the same boat. Their hands are tied at the moment until our banking and broker issues get corrected, but at least they still have a heartbeat. For the record, I do not see this happening anytime soon. They will be meeting over the next couple days but I can’t imagine anything significant or even relatively interesting coming out in the next couple days from them. It will be interesting however to see which sectors start to move in the coming weeks. Will the energy and technology stocks hold up or will they begin to slide as well? I’m holding out hope that these 2 will remain strong, but I will have a close eye on my stocks in these sectors because I want to keep the profits I have made so far and not give them back. You have to take profits when you can and not ride stocks back down.
Monday, June 23rd:
Plus 200,000 - Friday’s close sure was ugly and probably not that shocking if you have been following the market. The DOW and SP500 are rapidly approaching the March lows and if we hit those levels I hope we bounce off them because it could get nasty if we break through those levels. Saudi Arabia told the World on Sunday that they would raise oil production by 200,000 barrels a day. We will see if this actually happens and what kind of impact it will have on the price per barrel. We probably should have figure out another energy source or at the very least start working on better gas mileage for cars back in the 70’s, but we didn’t and now we are paying the price. Let’s hope we have a better week.
Friday, June 20th:
Quadruple Witching - Today could be a fun day as quadruple witching is upon us. This is when contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire. We can certainly expect some high volume today.
I looked at some option activity with low Put-Call ratios for some stocks to try to find anything that seemed unusual. Here are the stocks that caught my eye IPG, AUY, BJS and DKS.
Thursday, June 19th:
Stocks Feel the Burn - Stocks have been hit pretty hard this week and it is time to look at some charts to see if we can see any levels of support. The charts will be easier to see on a wider page so Click Here to see the graphs and my talking points.
Today could be a slow one with quadruple witching coming up on Friday. There are no real big earnings reports coming out today either but we could still see some big moves in this kind of market.
Wednesday, June 18th:
Oil Anyone - The oil inventory numbers will be out this morning and that along with Morgan Stanley's earnings will be today’s talking points. Yesterday was not a great day for the bulls and if oil starts higher today it could be another long day.
The Celtics won their 17th NBA championship last night and made it look easy in doing it. They absolutely clobbered the Lakers 131 to 92 and it was pretty much over by halftime. And since I am talking sports, how about them Mets. The front office is a quality bunch of individuals that is for sure.
Tuesday, June 17th:
Lucky 7’s - If you looked at the DOW, SP500 and NASDAQ year to date through this last weekend, all 3 major indexes had 7% moves. They of course were to the down side but 7’s nonetheless and with my upcoming trip to Las Vegas this weekend I think that means good things ahead. If not for the market, then certainly for me this weekend.
We have a ton of information coming out today, so it will be an interesting day to say the least. There are earnings due out by Goldman Sachs and Best Buy. These two will hold significantly more meaning this quarter. Goldman is the wonder boy of the brokers so if they report bad earnings with a lot of write-offs then that would certainly mean more pain for the financials. We also have Best Buy reporting and they too are best of breed, so we will get an idea of how the consumer is holding up and if the rebate checks are being spent on material items. The May PPI, housing starts, industrial production and capacity utilization all will be coming out this morning.
Monday, June 16th:
Week Ahead - There are some important items coming up this week that will have a huge bearing on how the market performs. Lehman Brothers will be interesting with all the rumors floating around about its problems. There are earnings due out by Goldman Sachs and Best Buy. These two will hold significantly more meaning this quarter. Goldman is the wonder boy of the brokers so if they report bad earnings with a lot of write-offs then that would certainly mean more pain for the financials. We also have Best Buy reporting and they too are best of breed, so we will get an idea of how the consumer is holding up and if the rebate checks are being spent on material items. The May PPI, housing starts, industrial production and capacity utilization all will be coming out on Tuesday. The week will end with a bang with the always-exciting quadruple witching.
Friday, June 13th:
Yahoo for Yahoo? - This Microsoft and Yahoo deal sure was fun to watch unfold. I doubt we have heard the last of it, but it still will be an interesting situation to watch develop over the coming months. Now it looks like it is Google and Yahoo that will work together. I would think this deal will be hard to pass regulatory review, but I am not a lawyer. Mr. Yang certainly has some explaining to do to the shareholders and the follow up from Carl Icahn will be fun to watch. This match is not done yet and certainly should be the focus of a prime time mini series.
Thursday, June 12th:
Will the King Sell His Castle? - Budweiser may still be the king of beers regardless if they are bought out by InBev or not, but he might be selling his castle. It looks like the offer is $65 a share. It just would not seem right having a foreign company owning Anheuser-Busch, but money is what matters here.
Stocks were crushed yesterday and things might get worse before they get better. Citigroup is closing a hedge fund that was co-founded by Pandit, its current CEO, and that my friends is not a good thing. I would expect Citi to get pounded later today when it opens.
Wednesday, June 11th:
Mixed Bag II - Tuesday the DOW barely stayed on the positive side, while the SP500 and NASDAQ were both down. It just feels like something big is going to happen this week and unfortunately it feels a little negative . I am not taking any money off the table yet, but I sure will be watching closely in the coming weeks. I am hearing the inflation and stagflation words more often out of the press and that is never a good thing.
Tuesday, June 10th:
Mixed Bag - The DOW and SP500 went up yesterday while the NASDAQ retreated. There was not much news, except Apple talking about their new 3G iPhone. I called that one wrong on Friday. 
I was hoping something unexpected to the upside would come up, but it was not to be and the damage was minimal. I still love this stock for the long haul and the new phone does look nice. The speed is apparently light speeds ahead of the current version. The pricing range has come down so it will be interesting to see what kind of sales they can produce going forward. The DOW is way off its 200 and 50-day moving average. I am going to be watching this close to see if we retest lows of the year around the 11,900 area. There is a chart to show you were we are. The orange line is the 200-day moving average and the blue is the 50.
Monday, June 9th:
Here's Oil - Just when we thought we might have put a top in for oil, we get a two day bump and are back at an all time high. The question is does the economy have enough gas left in the tank to avoid a recession? Oil will definitely have a lot to do with the answer to this question. We have another extremely important week in front of us, so buckle up the ride is going to be bumpy.
Here are some items to watch this morning before we get started. AIG shareholders want some answers. Lehman is close to raising over $5 billion in capital. Gasoline hits $4 a gallon on average.
Friday, June 6th:
No Gain, Just Pain - The stock market did not improve, in fact got worse, since my last update and the three major indices ended the day down 3%. I was not kidding when I said on Monday that this would be a big week for the market.
I probably went against conventional wisdom, after a day like today, and actually bought Apple before the close. They should have the 3G announcement on Monday; I am hoping the extra features that will come along with the new iPhone will drive the stock price higher. I will then take a little off the table. Have a good weekend.
PAIN - Mr. T could not have said it any better, “pain”. The stock market is getting hammered right now down 2.5% as I type this. The unemployment figures and oil did the trick. I think I will be buying some stock today, but I am going to wait until we have 30 minutes before the close. I want to see if this pain continues.
Friday Delight? - Can we end the week on a positive note? I do not know the answer to this yet, but check back with me at 4 EST today. I got a kick out of reading an article about Henry Nicholas III, who was a former Chief Executive at Broadcom. Federal fraud charges were unsealed yesterday against him and while the main focus of the charges are backdating stock options, I got a kick out of the other items this clown was doing. Here are some of allegations:
- Having employee pay drug courier between 5 and 10 G in company lobby – check
- Pilot on private jet has to wear an oxygen mask because of how much weed he’s putting away – check
- Had to pay 1 million in bribe money to keep a former employee quite about his narcotics activities – check
- Personal assistant suing for back wages and accusing him of hiring prostitutes – check
- Spiking employee and customer drinks without their knowledge – check
Now this guy knows how to party! Here is the link to the article.
Thursday, June 5th:
Yummy - That is more like it. Stocks rebounded today on strong retail sales despite the fact that oil shot up and Ambac and MBIA were officially downgraded from their AAA rating. I mentioned those stocks this morning and hopefully will never have to hear of them again.
MBIA and Ambac Strike Again - Just when I thought I would never hear of MBIA and Ambac again, they struck with vengeance yesterday. The problem was both bond insurers could be losing their triple A rating. This is just another storm cloud over the financial stocks that have not had a great year so far. I would not be buying financial stocks before they all report their 2nd quarter earns or lack there of. I will keep my eye on them, but I am in no hurry what so ever to buy any now. It has been an interesting week to say the least and I can’t wait to see what today brings.
Wednesday, June 4th:
Volatility Part II - It looks like our little friend ‘volatility’ has made a return to the markets. I sure missed it, my heart has not, but it sure makes it more exciting. The markets were crushed 2 weeks ago, only to rebound last week, and this week we are starting off with a bang. We have had back-to-back days of triple digit losses on the DOW. We blew through the 200 and 50-day moving averages to the downside after attempting to breakout in May.
I found a couple nice and depressing articles on the economy so your day will go up from here. My goal is to make you happy. At least oil fell below $124 a barrel yesterday. This article is George Soros talking about commodity bubble of 87. The second article was by Paul Farrell on a megabubble that will pop in 2011.
Tuesday, June 3rd:
Market Plunges Again - The stock market got hammered again today in what seem like a blink of an eye. I am not sure if it was the GM announcement, the news that Hillary would be conceding today or something that is not known yet. Whatever the reason starting a little after 1 PM EST, the market went from looking like an up to even day to a big loser. Welcome back volatility, we missed you!
Financials Drag on the Market - Wachovia and WaMu did what was not that big of a surprise in forcing out CEOs. When you run companies into the dirt, there is usually a price to pay. I am sure these CEOs and CFOs are learning their lessons the hard way with the nice golden parachutes they are given on the way out the door. You will not catch them making those mistakes again, unless you want to live on millions of dollars. No sir, lesson learned!
As I mentioned yesterday, I think this week is a big one so lets hope the markets behave a little better today.
Monday, June 2nd:
Ouch - Now that is a Monday whammy for you. Stocks took a plunge, while oil moved slightly higher. All 3 major indexes lost just over 1% today. The DOW tested the 200-day moving average a couple times in May only to fail both attempts to breakout. Now, as you can see, we broke through the 50-day moving average and today dropped well below that barrier.
Big Week Ahead - This week is an important one for the stock market, at least for the next couple of months. The oil trade may have peaked at $135 a barrel a couple weeks back and if oil does start to slide, it will be interesting to see where the stock market goes. Will it slide as well or get a boost as investors become less worried about inflation? My guess is any boost in stocks will be short lived until the banks get their ducks in a row and housing starts to at least look like there is a bottom in sight. I am not saying you cannot make money in the market for the short term but I would avoid jumping in with both feet at this point in the game. Earnings are ending so oil and where the economy is headed could dominate headlines…as if oil was not already but even more so now. I sure hope oil has peaked because filling the tank is not a pleasant experience.