Friday, October 3rd:
Tick Tock Tick Tock - The clock is counting down on the House’s vote
for the 700 billion dollar life raft for the economy. It is hard to imagine this
thing failing but then again I thought it was a lock on Monday. If it does pass
then we could see a slight rally in the stock market and Thursday’s losses could
be made up. The unemployment figure released later this morning will set the
tone though. If the number is horrible then the bill passing could mean
absolutely nothing. It has been a rough week for stocks to say the least so far
and I guess you could say it is like being a Cub fan. Those poor Cubs, it is
just hard to watch some times as the team implodes. The series is not over, but
it is a tough mountain to climb.
Thursday, October 2nd:
Round II - The Senate has approved round two of the 700 billion dollar
bailout. Apparently there was not enough pork on it so they wanted to add some
more. It is due to be voted on in the House with the fresh pork on Friday. You
would think with all the talk of how this is needed and needed now the House
would pass the bill, but I do not want to put anything past these jokers. If
this bill does not pass on Friday, I would expect a huge drop in the major
indexes. If it were approved, I would not anticipate a big jump up because we
are still looking at a lot of problems with the economy. The clock is ticking
down to Friday’s vote.
Wednesday, October 1st:
What a Comeback - Perhaps the stock market is gearing up for some MLB
Playoffs with Tuesday’s huge rally. It did not make up for all of Monday’s
losses, but a great gain nonetheless. The baseball playoffs get started today
and there is nothing like a 9th inning rally to get your blood flowing. Stocks
most certainly can get the blood flowing like a great baseball game in the late
innings, but we do not know what inning we are in by a long shot. In fact, we
won’t know what inning we are in now until the next game as started. Batter up…
Tuesday, September 30th:
Monday Massacre - Now yesterday was what you could call the king of
Monday market meltdowns. If you think you had a bad day just wait until you get
home and check your portfolio. You can thank the men and women in Washington DC
that are representing us for this move down. The stock market went directly in
the toilet as the no votes on the 700 billion dollar bailout started to roll in.
It sounds like they won’t have a new or revised plan together until late this
week, so the rest of the week could be crazy. I did not think this week could
top the last two, but when the plan was voted down it took care of that in a
hurry. Today is a new day and hopefully we will have something to get excited
about.
Monday, September 29th:
700 Billion Signed and Sealed - The bailout is ready for
implementation, so will it work or signal a bottom in financials. There is not a
soul on the planet that can tell you the answer to that question just yet. It
also appears the financial issues are not just at home in the US. A foreign bank
Fortis needed a 16 billon dollar injection of cash to stay afloat. We knew there
were going to be problems overseas at some point and perhaps this is the start
of foreign banks and brokerages fire sales and collapses. It is just not a great
time to be in the financial industry both here and abroad. The last two weeks
have been crazy for sure so let us see what this new week brings.
Friday, September 26th:
WaMu Bites the Dust - The FDIC took over Washington Mutual yesterday
in what was the largest bank failure in US history. JPMorgan Chase will pick up
the pieces of this mess and try to turn a profit out of it. It also appears the
“bailout package” is going to take a little longer to approve than what was
originally anticipated. These two events could erase some or all of Thursday’s
gains. The question now is what will be the next financial institution to circle
the drain. After each one if these failures we have heard this should signal the
bottom but yet more continue to fall and the market moves lower. It is just hard
to know when to jump in during these crazy times in the market. Another day,
another dollar…hopefully.
Thursday, September 25th:
That Was Boring - After Monday and Tuesday’s fireworks, we had a semi
calm day yesterday. The DOW was down again but not triple digits like it has
been for the first two days of the week. Since Wednesday was a boring day, I
would guess today we will be back to triple digit gains or losses. We of course
will hope for the best but be prepared for the worst. I know I am sitting with a
lot more cash than I normally would, but I don’t need to try and call bottoms. I
will gladly give up a little gain by having a high amount of cash on the
sidelines. This gives me a little more comfort when the markets are going nutty
and won’t disappoint me if I miss some big moves to the upside. Cash is King!!!
Wednesday, September 24th:
Can Buffett Stop the Bleeding - Warren Buffett is going to throw 5
billion to Goldman Sachs and the question is does this signal a time to buy
financials again. Warren himself will tell you he cannot pick tops and bottoms
but he is the best at picking up bargains. The thing is though he has plenty of
cash and time to sit on investments for the market to turn around on them. The
rest of us poor folk do not want to see a large chunk of our portfolio go up in
smoke if we did dive back into the financial stocks. This is no doubt a good
sign for some of these stocks, but I for one will not be moving in just yet.
Monday and Tuesday sure were unpleasant days to say the least, so let us see if
Mr. Buffett can inject some life into this market.
Tuesday, September 23rd:
Will Tuesday Bring More Glum? - Monday sure was not a pretty day for
stocks. We had one of the usual suspects and one we have not heard from in a
couple weeks driving down the market yesterday. The financials were a disaster
and oil made an ugly appearance just to let us know it was not going away for a
while. The question marks over how this bailout or injection or rescue is
actually going to work had the market worried and we can’t point our fingers at
the shorts now. These are strange days when it comes to trying to figure out
what is going to happen next.
Monday, September 22nd:
Top That - I will tell you this; it will be hard to top last week for
excitement and daily moves in the major averages. It will still be a fun week to
see what happens after the FED started handing out free pass cards to anyone
that needed them. They had to do something because major companies were
collapsing in a hurry. The shorts cannot be to happy with the SEC right now, but
they will be back in the game after a short timeout. I will be watching the XLF
and housing stocks to see how they perform this week.
Friday, September 19th:
Hit the Road Shorts - What a rally yesterday. It will be an
interesting day to say the least. I guess we will find out if the shorts have
been tanking this market or not because it looks like they will be banning short
selling for a short period of time. The FED is also going to setup some programs
that will help institutions get bad assets off the books. The details are not
known, as I am typing this, but it will interesting to see how the market
digests this information before the bell today. It would certainly seem to pump
life into it, but it could also scare people to death with how the government is
reacting to the latest selloffs and financial company failures.
Thursday, September 18th:
Next Up Morgan and Goldman - Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are the
two latest companies to be hit by the short bug. The shorts are moving in like a
deadly virus destroying the organs and leaving the carcass for the wolves and
vultures. I am not sure who the shorts will feast off of next, once they tear
down these two firms. I guess move onto more banks or perhaps tackle the biggest
prize of all, GE. This would surely be an impossible task or would it? Stay
tuned to the crazy and wacky world of how Wall Street turns.
Wednesday, September 17th:
Adios AIG, Who’s Next? - Well they may not be going away, but the
government has seized control of them since that was the only option left unless
they wanted it to go bankrupt. The federal government decided the tentacles of
the company spread too far and to wide and could start some catastrophic events
if it went down. I cannot see this as being a good thing at all, but I am 72.3%
sure it will probably send stocks higher later today when the market opens. I
would guess a strong open and we will tank as the day goes on. This of course is
strictly a guess and nothing more. I will be watching Morgan Stanley closely.
They reported better numbers than were expected and released them early to try
and hold off the shorts. With AIG out of the way, it will be interest to see
what the shorts go after next. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley could be the
only big boys left standing on their own when this whole crisis is over or not.
Tuesday, September 16th:
AIG’s Spiral of Death - Well the hits just keep on coming and the end
is nowhere in sight. Today’s victim appears to be AIG and its 1 trillion dollar
balance sheet. They will have to come up with significant capital or face the
possibility of going bankrupt before the week is out, in fact as early as
Wednesday. The FED will be speaking later today and all eyes and ears will be on
them to try to calm some of the fears out there. It is a monumental task to put
it lightly, but I am 100% sure the FED will be blamed for whatever goes wrong
later today. The taxpayer cannot bailout every greedy corporation that comes
begging for money. The city is burning down, run for your lives…